Roundtable: Technology, Marketing, Brokerage, Government Policy, Capital, Construction & Cyber Security in Real Estate with Andreas Senie


January 19, 2023 Season 5
EXPERT SECTOR INTERVIEW WITH NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTOR'S CHIEF ECONOMIST DR. LAWRENCE YUN Roundtable: Technology, Marketing, Brokerage, Government Policy, Capital, Construction & Cyber Security in Real Estate with Andreas Senie
More Info Roundtable: Technology, Marketing, Brokerage, Government Policy, Capital, Construction & Cyber Security in Real Estate with Andreas Senie
Jan 19, 2023 Season 5

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Join National Association's Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun,  Inland's Dan Wagner, and host Andreas Senie as we discuss the state of the economy, how we got here, and possible directions the Real Estate Industry is taking. 

About Dr. Lawrence Yun
Lawrence Yun is Chief Economist and oversees the Research group at the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®. Dr. Yun creates NAR's forecasts and participates in many economic forecasting panels, among them the Blue-Chip Council and the Wall Street Journal Forecasting Survey. He also participates in the Industrial Economists Discussion Group at the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. He appears regularly on financial news outlets, is a frequent speaker at real estate conferences throughout the United States and has testified before Congress. Dr. Yun has also appeared as a guest on CSPAN's Washington Journal.

About our Hosts

- Andreas Senie, Founder CRE Collaborative's Platform, Commercial Broker/ Owner, Director of Commercial KWCommercial and technology growth strategist for both non profit and for profit sectors 

- Dan Wagner, Senior Vice President Government Relations at The The Inland Real Estate Group of Companies, Inc.

*Sector Interviews are bonus episodes of Real Estate Roundtable. 

ABOUT Roundtable: Technology, Marketing, Brokerage, Government Policy, Capital, Construction & Cyber Security in Real Estate: Your all-in-one comprehensive view of what is happening across the real estate industry -- straight from some of the industry's earliest technology adopters and foremost experts in Technology, Marketing, Government Policy, Brokerage, Capital, Construction & Cyber Security in Real Estate. Roundtable is live 6 PM EST on the 1st Thursday of each month, across all major social media channels and wherever you get your podcasts. Replays are available on YouTube, LinkedIn, Facebook, Twitter and anywhere you get your audio: Apple Podcasts, Alexa, Google Podcast, Stitcher, Pandora or Simply ask Alexa to listen to “ Roundtable” 

Learn more at : 

#Realtor #RealEstate #Economictrends #podcast #NAR

Don’t forget to subscribe to our YouTube channel where there is a host of additional great content and to visit the Commercial Real Estate Industry’s all-in-one dashboard to connect, research, execute, and collaborate online Please be sure to share, rate, and review us it really does help! Learn more at :

Show Notes Transcript

Send us a Text Message.

Join National Association's Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun,  Inland's Dan Wagner, and host Andreas Senie as we discuss the state of the economy, how we got here, and possible directions the Real Estate Industry is taking. 

About Dr. Lawrence Yun
Lawrence Yun is Chief Economist and oversees the Research group at the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®. Dr. Yun creates NAR's forecasts and participates in many economic forecasting panels, among them the Blue-Chip Council and the Wall Street Journal Forecasting Survey. He also participates in the Industrial Economists Discussion Group at the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. He appears regularly on financial news outlets, is a frequent speaker at real estate conferences throughout the United States and has testified before Congress. Dr. Yun has also appeared as a guest on CSPAN's Washington Journal.

About our Hosts

- Andreas Senie, Founder CRE Collaborative's Platform, Commercial Broker/ Owner, Director of Commercial KWCommercial and technology growth strategist for both non profit and for profit sectors 

- Dan Wagner, Senior Vice President Government Relations at The The Inland Real Estate Group of Companies, Inc.

*Sector Interviews are bonus episodes of Real Estate Roundtable. 

ABOUT Roundtable: Technology, Marketing, Brokerage, Government Policy, Capital, Construction & Cyber Security in Real Estate: Your all-in-one comprehensive view of what is happening across the real estate industry -- straight from some of the industry's earliest technology adopters and foremost experts in Technology, Marketing, Government Policy, Brokerage, Capital, Construction & Cyber Security in Real Estate. Roundtable is live 6 PM EST on the 1st Thursday of each month, across all major social media channels and wherever you get your podcasts. Replays are available on YouTube, LinkedIn, Facebook, Twitter and anywhere you get your audio: Apple Podcasts, Alexa, Google Podcast, Stitcher, Pandora or Simply ask Alexa to listen to “ Roundtable” 

Learn more at : 

#Realtor #RealEstate #Economictrends #podcast #NAR

Don’t forget to subscribe to our YouTube channel where there is a host of additional great content and to visit the Commercial Real Estate Industry’s all-in-one dashboard to connect, research, execute, and collaborate online Please be sure to share, rate, and review us it really does help! Learn more at :

[00:00:00] Andreas Senie: Welcome back to the Real Estate Round Table for this sector expert interview with Dr. Lawrence Yune, chief Economist. Overseeing the research group at the National Association of Realtors. I'm Andrea Seni, technology growth strategist, founder of the Siri Collaborative Platform, brokerage owner and host here at the Kreo AI Roundtable.

You're all in one comprehensive view of what's happening in the real estate industry, straight from some of the earliest industry adopters, technology adopters, and foremost experts. And today joining us is co-host Stan Wagner, senior Vice President, government relations at. Good friend and our sector expert, Dr.

Lawrence, y Dan. Welcome, Dr. Lawrence Yune Lawrence, welcome. Uh, for my audience that doesn't know, and you should know, this guy's been talking about the economics and what affects your business for many years, and we all know Dan from the show and in inland. Doc, uh, Dr. Yn creates ours forecast, participates in many economic force forecasting panels, CS Span.

He's in Washington right now. Not quite the White House, but next door, I believe. So with that, Dr. Yn. Dan, welcome. Happy 2023 . Thank 

[00:01:21] Dr. Lawrence Yun: you. Thank you for inviting.

[00:01:24] Andreas Senie: So, uh, Dr. Yoon, uh, a little more background on you, just for the audience, Dan, they know you and we're gonna jump into it pretty deeply. How did you get your start?

You and Dan have been in and out of rooms, lobbies for, for different things. How did you end up at, at an AR really getting your. , 

[00:01:39] Dr. Lawrence Yun: uh, well, you know, I was doing my, uh, economic doctorate degree, uh, at nearby University, university of Maryland, and as a research assistant, uh, I was involved, uh, in the macroeconomic forecasting.

Uh, they gave me this equation. It was related to personal consumption, expenditure, uh, and they said, well try to polish that up, enhance it, uh, so we can make a better prediction of the economy. And then, you know, other students, Focused on other part like investment. So that's how I got my, uh, economic forecasting sort of, uh, training part.

Uh, and then, uh, once I graduated, you know, while I worked in the Washington, so the consultancy field a bit, working on various government agency projects, then with the N Na R job open for economic forecaster, I didn't really know about the real estate as much, uh, but, you know, economic, uh, forecasting. So I.

Then of course over time I learned this, I learned that, uh, meet people like Dan and then, uh, I understand the real world a little better. So, oh, it has been all good. 

[00:02:44] Dan Wagner: Well, Andre, let me throw in one more thing. Um, this is gonna be, this is, I'm in the Chicago world I'm in coming to you live from Oakbrook, Illinois at our world headquarters of Inland.

But, um, the Chicago Agent Magazine just had a, has a really great story in it. Uh, Dr. Hu and I gotta tell you, we have, uh, you know, as a, as a part of the National Association of Realtors, we have 1.5 million members, and it's a, it's really the realtor family and talking to a variety of our realtor leaders.

Um, all of them are, everyone just has such a, a warm place in their heart for Dr. Yn, and we're all so proud of how Dr. Yn, um, he, that he, he represents our real estate industry in such a great. And what I think is e extra, uh, special is that he's able to take some very complex, uh, details and, and information and, uh, bring it down to where, uh, the average person who's, uh, listening to it can, can really understand it.

And when Dr. Hugh, when you have to speak at all these different national places where, where people don't, you know, know, uh, if it's CNN or whatever it is, they might not be aware. Of, of the details of the real estate, you help make it to be understandable. And that's a, that's a very important thing to be able to do.

But from all of us realtors, we just, I just, I'm so honored to that you're here today. 

[00:04:05] Andreas Senie: I, uh, I, myself included there, it's, uh, since 2007, I'm a card caring member of n ar. Love it. Woodard does out in the world and for us as realtors, as brokers, commercial and residential. Just so you know, most of our audience is commercial real estate, some residential, some overseas.

So we don't have to go, uh, too technical cuz you know. . We're pretty straightforward people. , except the institution side. But let's, let's, let's, let's talk a bit about, about speaking out and what's happening in the world. Here we are, it's 2023. We're in the next 30 days, three months. We know what the Fed has done.

We know tightening, we know there's this. What I want to ask you about is the shadow slump of three months where no, nothing's gonna happen transaction wise. What are you seeing from where You said you've been here, you've been at NAR 15. What are your thoughts and opinions to start in January?

[00:04:55] Dr. Lawrence Yun: No, uh, last year.

Uh, in terms of the Federal Reserve policy, uh, it was the most drastic raising of the interest rate environment since early 1980s, uh, when Paul Volker, uh, was the determinant of the Federal Reserve. Now, back then, inflation rate was running at double digit pace for a couple of years. Uh, Paul Voker said, no, we cannot have the dollar lose the purchasing power.

Uh, we have to get, uh, the economy under control, the dollar under control. So he said he will kill the inflation even if he requires recession. So that's what he did back in early 1980s. Well, this time, 2022, inflation. Of course, we were all frustrated. Go to grocery store, gas station, you name it, we are frustrated.

So one way to contain inflation is to raise interest. Now the side effect, the byproduct of that is it's gonna slow the economy down. And certainly raising interest rate has greatly harmed interest rate. Sensitive sector housing is one, and it's in commercial real estate as people need to refinance, uh, pay up the loan that is coming due, and now they're looking at how much rents are coming in.

But look, interest rates are much higher, uh, after. Rose over those, uh, payments. So therefore, uh, the transaction volume naturally begins to slow down because from property owner's perspective, they said, look, I have, I own an apartment, I have high occupancy. Uh, you know, rent growth is pretty good here. I want this price.

But the buyer is saying, no, uh, the financing cost is much higher, so I'm gonna have to offer you much lower, uh, price. And two cannot agree and the transaction is not occurring. You know, a similar situation with other commercial real estate, uh, property types. 

[00:06:46] Andreas Senie: So, so based on, on 1980 and today, now, and I know we, these are unchartered waters, so, so we can say from variable fa, varying factors, would you change what we've done, what, what the Fed has done over the last two years?

Are we in a great place as an economy moving forward here in. 

[00:07:03] Dr. Lawrence Yun: Uh, you know, sometimes, you know, one look in hindsight, uh, to say that whether one would do something differently, but based on high inflation, which was running 9%, I mean, those are very, very high. Preferred inflation is 2%. Now Paul Voker will be an awful, he would say 0% inflation would be good, but you know, economists did a lot of, uh, the study to say 2% is probably a good thing to smooth things out.

Um, so, uh, that would be the ideal. But inflation was running at 9%. So, you know, one has to address that. But the question then becomes why was inflation nine? Was the stimulus, uh, perhaps a little too generous in terms of, you know, whether giving money to people, uh, providing the loans, uh, easy excess loans to companies or, uh, to business owners.

So we just flooded the economy with money. . And one consequence of that is we got high inflation, so what is the right thing? Should we have done little less on stimulus side or keep the stimulus? But now the Fed has to pay for that by raising interest rate to help the economy. Uh, so, you know, federal Reserve is doing its own thing.

I'm not going to disagree or agree. Uh, you know, I'm just looking at what they have done and this is what 

[00:08:23] Dan Wagner: we. Well, I know Lawrence, when you look at the, uh, the money that they, that was given for Covid, I think that a, a certain amount of that was, was we've saved so many businesses. But it got to the point, I think that the, I think the last 1.9 trillion, um, I think that from what I, I've garnered from different things I've read was kind of the impetus for that nine.

[00:08:47] Dr. Lawrence Yun: uh, you know, people will study how much of these stimulus, you know, pushed up inflation rate by certain percentage point. You know, they will, uh, look at this in academic papers probably three, four years down the road. Uh, but the reality is that there was a massive spending into the economy. We need more production to accommodate this increase in spending.

But what did we have? We had 3 million Americans leave the labor force either taking early retirement or saying, you know what, uh, this, uh, amount of money that I have in the bank, stimulus money. This will keep me a while for us. And then you had our, so the, uh, eviction moratorium, uh, which, you know, from an AR perspective, we should not hurt the landlord.

They, they're innocent people. Why are you trying to hurt the landlord for the eviction moratorium? Yeah. So we asked for the rental subsidies to come along to say, if you want to help the renters stay in their places. It should be rental subsidy. Uh, not just simple, uh, eviction, moratorium, uh, but you consider some renters, you know, who are in difficult situation that certainly saved their lives save, saved their career.

But I'm sure there are some people who over abuse that to say, oh, I don't have to pay rent. I'm not gonna pay rent. And maybe, you know, there some people took advantage of that situation as well. 

[00:10:06] Dan Wagner: I'm sorry, Andrew. The other thing, in Chicago, you also have the. Um, having to pay, uh, the property taxes are trying to be voiced more on, on commercial

So that's, that's the other thing. And, um, I'm so glad that, uh, the inland we got out of, uh, of, of office when we did, because the office is. So difficult for people cuz no one's going back to work. I mean, it's just, that's a big 

[00:10:30] Dr. Lawrence Yun: deal. Well, 

[00:10:31] Andreas Senie: and and to be clear, I wasn't asking you to agree or disagree with, with hindsight.

2020 hindsight is, is always a thing the where we are today, where we are today. And I'm gonna jump to office in a moment, Dan. Great point. Um, you brought up multi-family. We had a major influx in multi-family investment movement. Uh, an entire generation went from, I'm gonna live in a. Two, I'm gonna live in, in urban areas, and they propped up prices with stimulation and, and all of this all coming together in a perfect storm.

What, uh, did we learn from past recessions? Is the cycle shorter for us to come in here and be opportunistic? What do you see in as a, as your time at N A R. Specific to that EC economic trend, are we, are we in that opportunistic moment? Which goes back to my shadow inventory question or are, is everyone getting leaner and hiding out?

It's an unfair question, but I'm gonna ask it cuz it's going to Dan next on the reposition of of Inland and Office 

[00:11:27] Dr. Lawrence Yun: now. ? Well, you know, at first, uh, on the residential side, oh, I should say home ownership side, there's a lot of emotions involved. But the commercial real estate, best thing about commercial real estate is there's no emotions.

You are just looking at the numbers to see whether you make sense to invest this, whether opportunities, uh, show up. Um, and right now I think it's more of. A face off between the sellers and the buyers. Sellers are saying, look, the rents are good. I have high occupancy. I cannot reduce the price on my building, uh, even though the cap rates would need to rise because interest rates are higher.

Uh, but you know, the buyers are saying no based on the financing. So that's why there was a little bit of stand. But in other property, it becomes really opportunistic, especially where office market, we are seeing continuous rising vacancy rates, uh, throughout most big cities. And because this, and we're not done, because I think many companies are still unsure about what will be the right office space requirement given that hybrid model it looks like is going to be more p.

Exact nature of it. Is that three days a week come to office or is it, you know, one week a month? Uh, who knows what the right formula is? Uh, people will try different trial and error process in terms of worker retention versus worker productivity, cooperation, all that part, but we are not yet at a equilibrium.

People are testing it. But without a doubt, office space looks very vulnerable, which means that some people who may be financially constrained, currently, they don't have a tenant. Rents are not coming in, but their loans are due. Maybe they want to unload. And this is where some of the investors can say, you know, I am willing to, uh, bail you out in some.

You know, the owner perhaps will not get the full price of what they expected, but at least is to unload the property. And this is where the real, the investors can possibly, you know, look at the numbers, uh, and, and then offer even with po possibility of repurposing after, uh, getting that 

[00:13:41] Andreas Senie: property. Uh, and repurposing in, uh, Dan, you mentioned it inland, pulled out of office.

Yep. Um, the repurposing of all these office assets, I mean, that is a major. Of asset. That's the largest chunk of asset types. Studies are showing that, that even us working remote as a workforce, that doesn't work. Executives are fighting that saying, no, we're gonna cut down on our office. Why real estate is the top expense for a business behind salaries or above salaries?

Cutting office fi as a business Makes sense if I can, but what's inland doing Dan with, with office? Have you sworn it off or? No. Is it something you're coming 

[00:14:19] Dan Wagner: back to? So what's what's really cool about Inland? We just purchased our, I think we're at 54 billion of, uh, of purchases we've done in our over 55 years of being in business.

And, uh, we still have the four teachers at the helm of, uh, of inland, uh, running the show and having that kind of longevity and, you know, understanding of the markets they've been through these cycles. They know what it was like to go through the eighties. Um, and it's, it's pretty fun talking to 'em.

They're, they're, uh, they, they know this and they've gone through it. Um, they identified, um, you know, Mr. Goodwood, Joe Senza, Bob Baba Parks, they identified, um, you know, a variety of years ago that, that they saw this trend is, is starting where people are wanting to work more remotely, uh, work from home. And this has been obviously the big trend, uh, with after Covid.

So we already were, we, we, uh, were involved. Um, selling those assets and we're really focused, um, on the, uh, multi-family is, is so big for us. Also repurposing, um, the different, like Kmart buildings into, uh, self-storage is a big thing as well. Um, opportunity zones for us. Um, looking at student housing, senior housing, all these different areas are important.

And obviously we've had hotels, you know, during Covid, the hotel world, uh, like went in town. Stop distributions as people knew, but, um, our investors understood it. And, uh, and that's, you know, another thing that's coming back. It, it's really for, especially now when you're able to, uh, you know, have, have the ability to increase rents, I think there that you have some really good performing assets for your investors.

Um, and that's what, you know, we have had the experience and knowledge of, of people to be able to do that. The other thing is, is, you know, you talked about the lag, um, you know, are are we gonna see, you know, three months of no deals? Again, I, I don't mean to be, um, like I'm showing off, but when, when you look at a guy like Joe Senza, um, who's, who's really been responsible for buying all this stuff for inland over 50 some years, he, he's like the Guinness Book of World Records winner of doing commercial, individual commercial real estate deals.

So when you have that kind of experience, he knows of so many off. Deals that people would never know about because of that relationship. And so Inland's relationships bloat would blow your mind through, uh, through who we know and who Joe Senza, who you know, all these folks know. And the other aspect. Is that with, um, you know, 1100 employees, we have, you know, property tax, all these other divisions and we're able to go in and, you know, understand different deals that o other competitors wouldn't know.

So having that, that breadth and understanding and that experience is everything. Don't you think Lawrence? I mean, experience is a big deal. 

[00:17:12] Dr. Lawrence Yun: Uh, the relationship, you know, the, developing that connection, I mean, those are 

[00:17:16] Andreas Senie: critical. , your network is your net worth to Right And true, regardless of your cycle.

You, you've gotta have the right people. That's why we, we do this and I'm lucky enough to, to have inland as, as part of my network and others. And n a r is the biggest network in the US right. Of real estate professionals that you can tap and work through and, and you're never showing off at Inland. Cuz they do well, they're always buying.

Buying inland is always buying, I love that tagline, . But the with, with so many eyes on the Federal Reserve with. Interest rates where they are and, and let's be honest, in the eighties, nineties, interest rates, double digit interest rates. It's cost of capital is, as you said, Lawrence, it's just a number on a spreadsheet.

As long as we can get the numbers to work for a deal, commercial real estate will happen. Even if there is a significant stall out in residential cuz people are emotional, they can't afford it or they've been propped. not putting words in your mouth, but would you say that that's, that's true that the commercial industry will carry on and do well over the next three months, six months this year, even while residential still has to stabilize and there's gonna be less volume in the residential market potentially?

[00:18:22] Dr. Lawrence Yun: Uh, yeah. I mean the, on the residential side, you know, the volume, uh, you know, Around, uh, 18%, uh, last year, 2022 from the boom that occurred in 2021 or even 2020. That was, uh, two years of, uh, the boom in the residential sector, uh, before really coming down, uh, around, you know, close to 20% in 2022, uh, from higher interest rates.

So that was the reason. Now, on the commercial side, again, initially there was a face. Then people begin to digest the information to say, yeah, uh, you know, because people know, understand the numbers and begin to say, only way to get the transaction done is to reduce the price. And overall we are seeing some reduction in the prices on the commercial buildings.

You know, some well positioned property, of course, they're holding. Uh, but the cap rates, given what's happening on the, uh, interest rate environment, the cap rates has to rise, which means that either one can, one has to raise rents to cover that, or if they cannot given the competitive pressures, only with to sell the property is through a slight discount in the price.

Now upon the apartment, which has shown the. , I think going forward, you know, view it as opportunity, you know, a little dis uh, disagreement on information, and this is what people begin to negotiate for prices, is that I think the rent growth will greatly decelerate this year. So apartment occupancy has been very strong, but we have so much pipeline of apartments coming onto the market ready to hit the market.

So this supply, uh, will begin to tame some of the rent. 

[00:20:04] Andreas Senie: Absolutely. So as, as operators became leaner with the economic headwinds coming in, what was projected as projections are key c some showing restraint in your projections on a stable, you know, you were gonna buy that, reposition it, that stabilized asset may not perform as high as you predicted six months ago, those rent rolls, and that, that's a great, great piece of advice to really dig into those numbers as far as shadow inventory and, and repositioning.

do you see, do you see any indicators from where you've been? We've got regulation coming down. We've got funding for different programs to, to utilize these buildings. Is that a, is that a hot area to invest? If they can hold on. Get the funding, you 

[00:20:45] Dr. Lawrence Yun: know, uh, you know, one big difference of, uh, I think where there is opportunities, uh, is the difference between the downtown and the suburbs.

Again, you know, the work from home environment. You look at a restaurant, I'm here in downtown Washington. I feel sorry for all the sandwich shops out in the downtown area. They're struggling yet the restaurants out in the suburbs are doing well, uh, because it's the same people. They just the same individual.

Do they eat in downtown or do they eat in the suburbs? , but many are staying in the suburbs that don't have to come to work every single day, or the federal government at least. Uh, as of today, uh, they still have the flexibility to remote work and many are choosing that, uh, which is the reason why, uh, the traffic is fairly light here in Washington, uh, because of those situation.

Uh, so I think, uh, you know, whether them viewing retail shop or equal, but of course it's not. I think the big difference is that, uh, the downtown is really beginning to, uh, seek some weakness, especially near the business centers now. Residential downtown area. I see some potential there. Uh, you know, early months of covid, people fled, uh, because of, you know, they don't want to catch covid and high density environment.

And then the other part was, you know, the crime. People don't like crime. They see it and they said, no, I'm gonna, uh, be out of here. Uh, so, so that condition. But at the same time, we have a large millennial generation. They need to live their life and their life. They may be considered to be in the city walking the street.

Uh, and as more people walk the street, this is actually a good crime prevention as well. You know, I mean, there's certainly some policy, but when there is a high density number of people walking in the street, uh, then that also provides that a degree of safety. And I think people would then begin to re-look at down.

Uh, living along with say, some of the retail shop that is in residential downtown area, uh, that could become very vibrant. 

[00:22:47] Dan Wagner: And, and I would highlight that like in the suburbs here in Chicago, um, Brookfield Properties owns Oakbrook Mall, Oakbrook Center, and that that's going gang Busters. Oakbrook Center has, uh, provided more sales tax revenue for the village Oakbrook in the than Everett in the history of the.

Um, they're, they're really into, um, Louis Vuitton is, is adding on. They're, they're, they can't get enough space. I mean, it's, it's really, uh, very, very vibrant. And, and then on the other hand, because I think of the safety issues in Chicago, um, the Michigan Avenue has a variety of vacancies for retail. And, and I think, um, you hit the, the hit it on the head regardless of pe, people feeling.

And I think they feel more safe out in the suburb like a Oakbrook mall than they would unfortunately downtown right now. I know, um, Lawrence, I dunno if you've been to the n na r building recently, but I know folks that have gone there, they're, they just are shocked at the difference of, of Michigan Avenue.

Have you seen the 

[00:23:47] Dr. Lawrence Yun: difference? Uh, first, you know, for people who are unfamiliar, uh, the audience, uh, the N na R building is, uh, located right next to the regular building on Michigan Avenue. Uh, that is the prime real estate in Chicago. It is better than fifth Avenue of New York City. , uh, pre covid agree to disagree.

I would categorize in that sense. Uh, but I only visited one or two times, but it was just a simple taxi ride to the building. They're going into the building. Rather than walking around. So I cannot really, uh, make a judgment. Uh, but, you know, people need to feel safe, uh, in order to, yeah, just do the shopping, window shopping, which then leads to emotional purchases.

Uh, but if people are not walking the street, it makes it very difficult. I 

[00:24:31] Dan Wagner: will, I will put a plugin for any, the NR building. Um, is just beautiful and they've done a great job renovating it. And, uh, it's really a terrific thing for our brand to have the n r building in downtown Chicago, right. On Michigan Avenue.

And then you have another building in downtown or in Washington that, uh, it looks like a ship. I mean, it's, it's another. Wonderful statement, uh, for everybody to see that, uh, the real estate community is here and it kind of wakes up the legislators to make sure they're aware of the power of our, so it's a nice thing.

But you're, you're stationed in DC right? 

[00:25:02] Dr. Lawrence Yun: Dr. Yon, uh, three blocks from the US Capitol on the roof, we can see the capitol, which means the capitol can see us. So we make that connection. 

[00:25:11] Andreas Senie: I love that. . Let's, uh, the, the, I want to jump in on, I wanna unpack that mall statement. Suburbs and, and cities, malls. We, we've got our big regional mall here.

Apartments be going up next door. We've got a lot of, as, uh, Dr. I pointed out a lot of affordable housing being developed to meet demand. So there's gonna be this huge supply. Would you say then that, that your opinion is for investors that are longer term, 10. that they should go back into. Take a hard look at downtowns, those, those retail restaurant, first floor, what have you, and office above apartments.

Above those are those opportunities, those hidden gems, cuz naturally people will go back into the cities. If 10,000 people turn 65 every day and are buying DSDs from inland, hopefully, then . How many millennials are coming of age and buying property? where? Where's the biggest driver that demand? Is it the city or the suburbs?

I was hoping that everyone shifted to the suburbs, a whole generation. But it sounds like you're a city promoter. . 

[00:26:12] Dr. Lawrence Yun: Uh, yeah. You know, right before Covid up to 2019, we had a decade. Of movement towards the city. Uh, you know, families grew up, uh, in the 1950s, 1960s, out in the suburb backyard, the dog and the fence.

Uh, but the people who grew up in the suburbs, and I want to experience that downtown lifestyle. So you saw the growth in the downtown living, whether it was in Chicago, Minneapolis, just about every. Where some areas were really deteriorating, but people wanted to experience downtown. So there was steady revival, of course.

Uh, you know, things like tax credit, uh, incentives, opportunity zones really make it happen. So it was movement towards downtown. Then Covid completely reversed that, so people now went back to the suburbs. Uh, so that's where we are and whether or not, uh, the next generation will want to have a taste of a downtown life while we have to wait and.

[00:27:09] Andreas Senie: Uh, I'm hoping, I'm hoping for the, the down, the downtown, the main street life. It's a missing characteristic. It's just a wonderful thing. Um, so we've got him a post here from my partner and wife, Emmy Sarika. Crime in one bedroom community is up 27% in our area. So crime aside, but it's all about the numbers.

Where's the demand? Where's the. is inland. Inland is, uh, where's inland focusing their investment? Is there, is there urban, 

[00:27:39] Dr. Lawrence Yun: suburban? 

[00:27:40] Dan Wagner: You know, I think the, the big key to, to, uh, to inland investing is it goes back to the, the basics where, you know, the housetop, the rooftops, the. Where the jobs are and the, the kind of the, the place that, uh, that has the sun, uh, and the fun, uh, and uh, you know, is kind of where people are, are focused.

From our, um, standpoint, when you're, um, looking to securitize property, you wanna make sure that you're in an area that's, uh, more stable, that you're not having big fluctuations of, uh, of politics. Um, so it's difficult, you know, like in Chicago it's difficult to buy something in the downtown. The, the, uh, assessor has tripled, uh, assessments in some cases.

And so when you, when you securitize something, that's a difficult thing. They have a big swing in property taxes that you're not used to. So, um, we're looking, you know, the, the south, um, the, the, you know, Texas, the Florida, Tennessee, those are the typical places. The other, you know, the California is a wonderful place.

The, uh, the legislative environment is, is so, uh, intense that, you know, the idea of being able to afford the ability to do rent increases and you have rent controls and things like that on this, on each coast, it's a difficult thing where everybody's talking about that. So we're focused on more of the, the Texas, Florida, Tennessee, that kind of thing.

We're open to also lots of other developments where there's a good opportunity. In general, you know, just do it a generalization. That's kind of what we're looking at. And I would say that when, when, you know, the question about the crime and bedroom communities, like in Chicago, um, we have, you know, crime is because of the, uh, the, the large amount of crime in Chicago, we have it spilling over into the suburbs because they're, uh, like in Chicago, they're not putting, keeping people in.

Uh, they're letting people out. And when, uh, you have carjackings and you have, uh, our state's attorney's not, uh, arresting people in Cook County for, um, stealing up to I think under a thousand dollars worth of items, um, then, then folks come out to the suburbs thinking it's gonna be the same place. And so that's what I think is happening in, in some of the more urban areas.

The crime, I think, is spilling out into the suburbs. That's 

[00:30:01] Dr. Lawrence Yun: my. 

[00:30:03] Andreas Senie: And, and as far as construction starts, stops this labor shortage. I mean, uh, have you done any modeling on how that's going to affect the next 12 months? Six months. We had a, a supply chain shortage. Everyone's aware of that, but at least here in the northeast, we're still seeing this labor shortage on the job sites.

So you spoke, and I'm jumping off a crime, Dan. I know, but jumped right into here. You spoke to.

When we speak about developments and deliverable, , there's a stall here in financing. There's a, there's a miscommunication between what I'm hearing on the left and the right state by state, unless we go south to those states. Stan mentioned they're thriving. Those were the top, you hit the top five out of 10 states for investment.

Uh, to be fair, what is, what is NAS outlook or what's your outlook as we come into this shift? I mean, it's the first time we've had this shortage in remote, this new work environment of remote work and lack of, of laborers to build as opposed to lack of. 

[00:31:04] Dr. Lawrence Yun: You know, uh, so right before Covid, again going to 2019, uh, we work, uh, did some research, worked with some, uh, people in the academic, uh, world and trying to assess the housing shortage.

Uh, and it was not only about the home ownership housing, but even apartment, uh, housing shortage, and that was housing shortage. Uh, we were debating within ourselves internally, it's a 5 million housing unit shortage deficit, or is it a 6 million? Uh, do we account for this? How does the census measures the population?

How much error in their measurement? So as we were discussing all this, essentially we said there's about five to 6 million. Housing unit deficit in relation to the population and also population with jobs. Uh, and consequently, how do we address it? So we looked at all the angles, you know, availability of construction loan, uh, for small guys.

I know for the big guys that can go to Wall Street raise, uh, fund. Uh, but one other big thing that came out is exactly, uh, what you mentioned, which is labor. We don't have a good number of people in the pipeline, uh, to come into the construction industry. We are heavily reliant on immigrant population to come show up, uh, you know, whether it is, uh, legal immigrants or people without documents.

I know those are very, very sensitive topics, but I think one has to really address that not all Americans, uh, are college bound or they are not academically inclined. And if they're not, why don't we just say, Here's some trade skills, welding, carpentry, and you know, roofing and other part, it will give you a good middle income salary.

And in the past, I mean, we just considered our grandparents, what did they do? What kind of occupation did they have? What kind of education level did they have? So it was not dementing the occupation, but more as a, you know, , I am proud of myself. Why? Because I am bringing, uh, the finances for the family and I'm glad that my family, uh, is, uh, you know, financially, uh, secure.

So that was the pride that people went into. So whether it is welding, truck driving, you know, people need to have pride in that. Uh, and I think, uh, in through whether, uh, you know, to say everyone needs to go to college or that idea that we have demanded some of the trade skill work, and I think we need to bring that back into the, for.


[00:33:29] Dan Wagner: Dr. Yun, you were absolutely right and the, and when you talk about trade, you know, we need to put the trades back into the schools and teach people that I know. You know, the, uh, the carpenters union, the, um, electrical workers union, they do a lot of, of training, and that's what they're trying to get more and more people involved with.

I, I think you're absolutely right. The sh the shortage of labor is just everywhere. And that's, you couldn't be more right about that. And when you also look at everybody saying, oh, I'm gonna go get a four year degree, well, We talk about those student loans and you know, kids are just, you know, they it. It blows your mind of what people are facing when they're talking about buying homes.

What is one of the reasons why they have to put off? Doing the, the home buying is cuz of a huge student loan payment. So all, all of this is interconnected. I think you, you hit on some good points. Good question, 

[00:34:17] Andreas Senie: Andre. That's a really good question. Thank, thank you. The, the, the labor shortage, I mean they, to be fair to the unions cuz associated builders and contractors, they've been out there pushing, right?

And there's, yeah, I know a lot of very, very prestigious prideful, uh, design build engineers. I'm not discounting them at all, but I think. To Dan's, uh, statement, I think you're spot on. There is, uh, it's a generational joke, but I'll say it cuz it's relevant. It's relevant. Uh, if you bought a car 30 years ago, the driver, the manual in the glove box told you how to take apart the engine and put it back together.

today, the manual tells you not to drink the battery acid, nothing but do with how the edge, how the edge gets put together. There is, there's a basic skillset that, that we need to learn and, and, and cultivate. We've got two years of people at home or worse and not worse remote. Not being told or, or passing that on because when you're at home, you're in your own community.

You're not gonna get that outside education or, or that inclination to go do. . So how do we fix that? I mean, that's a tough question, but I'm gonna ask it. Uh, what's that? What does that look like on a model? Are we, how do we recover from this now added pressure on, on that labor force. You had said you identified it at pre covid.

[00:35:28] Dr. Lawrence Yun: Yeah. So aside from sort of moral, uh, persuasion to say not everyone should be going to college, you know, especially those who are not academically inclined, uh, you know, what's the reason for going to college takes seven years to graduate? Uh, and once they graduate, you know, working at Starbucks or someplace else and with a huge student that it doesn't make sense.

So I think we are clear that, uh, there is a tremendous value in college education, but not everyone will fully benefit from it. So we need to provide that alternative path, uh, right away. I think the state of Tennessee actually also has the following. All the community colleges offer a free retraining of skills of those people who got.

Recently, later off individual, they said, okay, which areas do we have a, uh, shortage of workers? Uh, if it's in the construction or welding, whatever it is. They said, we're gonna put this person, offer them to get this training cuz job is available. Now if person choose not to go into this training, of course they're on their own.

But they're essentially offering could other states sort of replicate, uh, this type of, uh, model. Um, and then, uh, the financial incentives, you know, as long as, uh, the, there's a shortage of labor, that means the wages will be rising. and the rising wages itself will be an incentive to go into the industry.

Uh, but if we, for example, I know, you know, college, the student debt, forgiveness, that's being discussed. But if it is forgiven, then it's still is providing additional subsidies to go to college. Uh, but if it is not forgiven, then people weigh the balance. It's a worth carrying onto debt. Uh, first it's going to trade school, but much lower cost and more immediate income, uh, that comes.

[00:37:08] Dan Wagner: Well, and the other, the other thing that we're, that is desperately needed, uh, is the, my wife worked, one of our clients is the Golden Apple Foundation. And the teachers, we, we need teachers all over the place. I mean, it's, there's a huge shortage in New Mexico and I mean, there's, there's such a massive need for good teachers because Covid, um, just really threw people for a loop and they ate a lot of retire.

but the, the need for teachers is another one too. So we could go off in a lot of tangents here. I'd 

[00:37:34] Andreas Senie: get on real estate, right? Yeah, yeah. No, abso we try to, sometimes we do go off, but, but mentor, you brought up another good point. Mentorship. There's this big gap now between, between the generations. A lot of people came into the workforce, didn't even know how to go to the office, right?

They graduated college and then they worked from home for two years. They didn't know how to transition. And those mentors I think are key to the, are the key. People that will guide the, the next generation into these relative roles, apprentices, if we're talking labor and, uh, design builds and engineering.

But back to, back to real estate, you, you made a, a unique point. You said financial security and, and when, what is it a good time to buy real estate? We're all realtors here, right? Yes. It's always a good time to buy real 

[00:38:15] Dr. Lawrence Yun: estate. Yes. That's, 

[00:38:16] Dan Wagner: that's 

[00:38:17] Dr. Lawrence Yun: the entry. What do you think? That's the answer. Yes. . I'm 

[00:38:20] Andreas Senie: just checking.

We're all real, but it's always a good time. So if we can invest and, and maybe you're not buying the asset fee. Simple asset. Maybe you're buying deeds or taxings. There are a lot of ways that these young professionals, young, uh, I think Wall Street Journal calls 'em Henry's high earners, not rich yet.

There's a lot of money out there for people that can come into real. Uh, they may or may not be looking, and my thought is they should be as is. Dan, what's yours? Real estate is the safest bet today, Lawrence. 

[00:38:51] Dr. Lawrence Yun: Uh, you know, I think, uh, everyone, uh, should have some, uh, of their financial asset and real estate.

And of course, you know, homeowners automatically they have some, uh, exposure to real estate just by owning a home. But even people, uh, who wanna look at commercial real estate, property, uh, people need to re. These are tangible assets. I mean, it's not like a cryptocurrency where there could either be a fraud No.

Or somehow disappear into the cyberspace. Uh, in some way. This is a tangible thing that that is right there, uh, that, that, that people cannot miss. Uh, and also it's a good hedge against inflation. You look at the land prices or even home prices, commercial real estate building. Back in 1970 and you said, what was it back then versus what it is today?

So despite all the business cycle or real estate cycle that go along with it, You look at the value and it keeps up with inflation. Uh, so, you know, price of Coca-Cola was very cheap. What nickel, a long, long time ago. And you know, it is what it is today. Same situation. Real estate. My parents bought their first home, I think in like $20,000.

People would not leave. Uh, believe me, uh, you have to add at least, uh, you know, one additional zero to the number, uh, in terms. So that's a multiple 10. Uh, at the minimum, uh, in terms of how. Uh, play out. So, uh, real estate exposure, I think everyone should have that. Well, and, 

[00:40:15] Andreas Senie: and as long as you can zoom out, you can outlive, as you just pointed out, the business cycle, that economic headwind.

As long as you invest well and you have the commercially, as long as you have the returns to hold you through. Let's pay off your notes. Um, and residential, as long as you want to be somewhere you're gonna enjoy. Uh, although there's one other number we didn't talk much about. We've got all these homes being delivered, all these apartments, these different assets.

But then we've got, uh, and it's, I'm gonna give you a blended number cause I don't know the exact figure across the state of Connecticut, but 10% of the houses in Connecticut are vacant. They're, you know, second homes, third homes. Are we gonna see an influx of these apartments, these condos, these. Coming up for sale as constraints, economic constraints, tighten everyone's wallet.

Is that the, is that the model, the theory that these secondary homes will come up? 

[00:41:03] Dr. Lawrence Yun: Uh, you know, first assumption on economic recession, I think we are still debating or not, uh, whether we will go into a recession. You know, certainly like Ukraine, G d P is collapsing by 30% from the terrible situation, uh, happening there.

Germany is probably going to go into a recession. The energy prices, because they were so dependent on Russian energy, uh, is quite fruitful. I mean, you know, it's for homeowners who used to pay it's say, a hundred dollars per month, now I have to pay $400 per month, or, or the, you know, business community has to pay that amount.

So it's a huge increase. Uh, and that's gonna shape off some of the economic potential out in Germany. Uh, and since. globally, we are interlinked in some way. I know there's more to self sustain trying to ensure some of the manufacturing here into the us but still, we are still interconnected. So when Europe is weak, it's gonna bring down the US economy.

Uh, but at the same time, there's still enough strength in the US economy that GDP is running 1% or maybe zero, sort of bouncing along. Healthy GDP number will be 3%. But let's do the worst case scenario. Let's say somehow the GDP really plunges go down 3%. Well, that means that people will really struggle financially.

They don't have the extra cash, uh, for that, uh, uh, more luxurious discretionary spending, like second home, second apartment. Uh, and that's will hurt. Uh, but in my baseline scenario, in my forecast, I just have a sluggish economic. At the same time, job creation. It is a very unique situation. We have more help wanted signed than people who are unemployed.

Uh, you know, it's not a perfect match in terms of who lost jobs versus what's open. Uh, but we still have more job opening compared to people who are losing jobs. So given this scenario, I think people are finding jobs. Uh, you know, at least they need to have some income. So overall income for the country is still rising, and one consequence of this hybrid work from home is, I believe 10 years from now, it will be a very common phenomena for Americans.

To have a second home within the extended family. What I mean by that is we currently have two cars in the garage. I mean, those are much mixed here to the past generation, but I think people will have the second home within the extended family as being a very normal, because I get to use that vacation home this.

then my sister get to use it next week. Uh, and then, you know, my uncle get to use it the next week and so forth. Because you know, everyone who has work office employment will try to schedule to say, I'm gonna work remotely on this week. And of course, they're using the vacation home. So vacation home, I'm very optimistic over the long run, even though there may be short term cycle.

[00:44:02] Andreas Senie: Uh, good for you for catching my backend into the, where we are in the economy on that statement. Uh, the , um, savings be Steven Beek wrote in more savings and purchasing power in the eighties than today. As you just pointed out, you're bullish on where we are as an economy. We're growing, people are moving, transactions are happening.

Everything I'm hearing is, is reasons to invest, not to slow down. So why, and this, why are we. Lenders slowing down. What is it? Just because of the tightening on this forecast, the rental concerns, the inflation costs to capital capital's not being written as fast back to my three month window. How to you, is there a slum or are we bullish?

We bearish or bullish in the next three months? The next six months over the. 

[00:44:49] Dr. Lawrence Yun: Uh, I think the next, uh, three, six month is still uncertain environment. Uh, so caution, I think the banking, uh, industry will be very, very cautious. You know, they don't want to be, uh, holding the back with the economy was to go into more deeper recession.

So the, the banking industry are very cautious. The interest rate environment is saying, yeah, it is difficult to borrow money, uh, uh, condition unless you want to pay more, higher, higher interest rates. Uh, so over the next, uh, six. It's still very uncertain. And this is again, you know, people who are more bullish over the long term.

Take opportunity to say that, yeah, I know it's a little stretch to borrow the money, but I'm gonna borrow it now knowing that I don't have to compete with other buyers, uh, at the moment because, you know, when the other buyers show up, of course, you know, you have less chance to win that bet. Uh, so, you know, people should be with that.

[00:45:42] Andreas Senie: Well then this is where Inland, inland has founded by teachers, right? Advisors, p mentors in and of themselves. If they can follow the leaders, I mean, who are the people out there? If you had to point to a group, uh, to follow, obviously Inland's, one of them. Given your close rate and where you are and your rankings, the, are there anywhere else that should be looking as, as an industry, as professionals, where can we look to, to see what, to do?

What's bol outside of this show? Shameless, blunt, , where do you, where do you look for your economic trends when you're building these out? Who do you look to? 

[00:46:15] Dr. Lawrence Yun: Dr. Yu. Uh, you know, uh, so what Dan referred to about the, uh, southeastern states, you know, as one considers it, uh, Connecticut interestingly had virtually no job creation over the past 20 years, from year 2000, right up to pre covid, you know, virtually now lockdown, then, uh, knocked it, uh, downwards, uh, and they're still trying to come back.

Uh, so sorry to say that about Connecticut, even though, you know, prior to that, Connecticut was considered one of the, uh, you know, wealthiest, uh, state in the whole country. You know, everything was functioning well. Then things change over in the past, uh, 20 years. But the southeastern states, uh, you know, one of one.

Wants to use an analogy of the, uh, NCAA football league, the SCC conference. Those areas are just booming. Uh, people are moving to this area. Uh, the real estate prices are rising, but still relatively affordable compared to the New England states, uh, certainly compared to the West coast. Uh, so as people are migrating into this southeastern states, uh, that's where there's a potential for, you know, you build an apartment.

Well, one, do not have to worry too much about filling that up. Uh, you know, whether it's gonna be filled up immediately or it's gonna take a little longer, but people are continuing to move into the, uh, south, uh, 

[00:47:36] Andreas Senie: east, uh, region. Well, and, and being in Connecticut and a broker and an owner, I have to push back a little.

Connecticut is a great state with great things happening, but you have to be opportunistic and you need to take a long view in some areas and. Agree a hundred percent. Heading south is always a smart investor investment, lower cost of capital, lower cost of capital, but you have people working there. I know the remote workforce we keep touching on.

If you move to the south, you're gonna take a hit on your income. Companies aren't gonna pay you a California salary to live in Texas. As an example, Connecticut's the same thing. The Northeast is, is pays more, minimum wage is higher and so forth. Uh, as far as job creation, Shelton was one of the top 10 cities in the US for investment.

Not one of the, uh, not one of the Inland's primaries, but we've got a lot here. I have to push back. I'm, I'm the only guy in Connecticut on the call. Can I ask 

[00:48:28] Dan Wagner: you, can I ask you a question related to, um, What do you think, um, Dr. Yn in the, for our listeners, what I'm interested, what, what are, what periodicals do you read every day?

Like what, what are your go-tos to, to know what's going on in the world? Um, what do you watch? If you could, uh, hit some of the, your typical day, what, what do you recommend 

[00:48:49] Dr. Lawrence Yun: that we do? Uh, you know, first thing is, uh, I check the 10 year treasury review every single day. You know, I wake up and check that, but that drives the mortgage rates for home buying and a commercial mortgage, uh, market as well.

Uh, so I look at what the government borrowing rate will be, you know, right behind me in the US capital. They're debating on the. Ceiling. You know, there will be a lot of circus about it. Uh, maybe there will be default for a couple of weeks. Who knows? Uh, but I think people who are holding onto the government, borrowing, uh, government bonds, know they're gonna be paid no matter what.

Even with two weeks delayed, you know, uh, they're gonna be made whole in the, uh, process. Um, . So that's the very first item I look at. Tenure, treasury, banio. Uh, then, then other thing, you know, I lose look through the, all the financial news, uh, networks, you know, whether it is a paper, uh, wall Street Journal.

And then you add the Bloomberg, uh, the cmdc, uh, areas. And then I get some, you know, the, the emails that is thrown in my. Mailbox, e email every morning, and I scroll through that, uh, something, some interesting, you know, I click and and see what's going on. Uh, so it's a variety of, uh, papers and on the weekly magazine, I think The Economist magazine, the British publication, uh, every once in a while they have a very good in-depth analysis of the commercial real estate market.

A very, very thorough analysis. And I like. 

[00:50:18] Andreas Senie: I love it. Thank you. Well, now Dan, I gotta phrase it back to you. What's, what do you wake up and check for your news and what's happening in the, in the relations world? Policy? Cuz then that's to our audience who should be paying attention. Go ahead. 

[00:50:29] Dr. Lawrence Yun: I, 

[00:50:29] Dan Wagner: I think the most, I, I think the, uh, with the devastation of what's happened with the newspaper industry and, um, how things are changing.

The best, the best thing I read every day is a Wall Street. . I, I, I recommend that to everybody. I, I get it delivered to my house. I still, I'm, I'm 55 still. Great. Yeah. I'm old fashioned. I like, I like having a paper in my hand. Um, you know, I get the Chicago Tribune, I get our, our local, uh, our, our, our suburban paper, the Daily Herald.

Uh, but the, the thing that is the go-to for me and so many aspects is that the Wall Street Journal still has the, the resources to pay for some really good reporting. And I, I, that's my, that's my go-to every. 

[00:51:09] Andreas Senie: I love it. The, um, I'm a, I'm a digital native, right? So not a digital native in the generational sense, but Google alerts, wall Street Journal is a constant appearance as well as, uh, as well as you are Dr.

Yon, when you're speaking on different things. We're getting to the top of the hour, so we're right on time here. The Wall Street Journal, the periodicals, it sounds like, uh, big name papers or. Bloomberg if we don't have it, the the Treasury yield. Those are your two indicators. So really finding your market locally.

The New England Real Estate Journal has been fantastic here. Very concise and great, great insights as well as, uh, talking with brown tables like this, figuring it out. That's my go-to those emails, seeing what's what, listening to you guys. So here we are at the top of the hour. We covered, geez, uh, employ.

Houses, the fed almost everything. Crime, crime. Crime is a first for us on this show. double uh, double density changes. One other thing I will say about heading south, cuz I have to say it. Um, going green, going green by going south, it's cheaper and there's more sunlight. To your point, Dan, sunny or weather for all of the, the green initiative, solar power, I mean it.

It's a great market, but don't, don't count Connecticut out. We've got a lot of good things coming just like Boston and Massachusetts. What is the, as we get to the end here, what is the one person in your mind, Dr. Uns should be paying the most attention rate now? Is it, is it the first time home buyers? The real estate investor?

Who, who has the most. largest opportunity to profit. Is it the young professional who hasn't gone to college 

[00:52:48] Dr. Lawrence Yun: yet? You know, I think, uh, there is, uh, this pent up demand for housing demand. Uh, you know, for commercial real estate, you can view it in more terms of, you know, land development, land purchase, uh, part, uh, because there is a desire to own.

people simply cannot own in this unaffordable environment of high mortgage rate and with home prices having rise. 30%, uh, in the past three years. I mean, those are huge gain and short span of time. So I think there is that desire, yet they cannot. But if there's an opening for opportunity, whether there's an increased supply coming onto the market, Or whether there's a geographic migration to seek out affordability in the next county excerpts or even moving into different states.

Uh, so I think this area will be some of the big demographic driving pattern, uh, that is likely to occur. 

[00:53:46] Andreas Senie: Wow. So, so housing opportunities for those in shift, uh, those that can shift, I should say, with the, with the economic economics they need to. Dan, what is the, the biggest opportunity. from a policy standpoint for people to be paying attention, who should be paying attention to the changes that are coming out of the government policy?

10 31. 

[00:54:07] Dan Wagner: So, so the, the good news is, is that, uh, there's gridlock in Washington. And that's probably the best news because, um, when you have, uh, just one party in charge that a lot of stuff can get zoomed through. And so it's good to have, you know, the, the government where it's in the hands of different people.

Um, so I we're, we're not gonna see anything, um, knock god wood. We're not gonna see anything really major happening until after, um, the next presidential election. There's gonna be lots of drama, lots of circus. But in regards to the very fundamentals of when you look at, uh, the tax policy, cuz tax policy is, is everything for real estate.

Um, we we're looking at, at probably not too much happening, which is also a little scary because some, some provisions are sunset setting. And I know that, uh, Lawrence, you're friends with Evan Liddiard and um, he could go, he'd be another person to be able to go through and talk about some of these issues as well.

But, um, but I, I'm very, in a sense, I'm very happy that we do. The, uh, you know, the Republicans now are in charge of the house. Uh, the Democrats are the Senate and you know, president Biden. So there's not gonna be a lot of big changes right now. 

[00:55:16] Andreas Senie: So, so people are safe to make the moves they need to and follow that economic opportunity that Dr.

Y just pointed out. Yep. 10 31 s are intact and safe. Yep. For those that, that. Don't paying attention. Go , pay 

[00:55:29] Dan Wagner: attention. And, and Lawrence as, uh, we've been , we've been talking about the 10 31 for all these years. , the, the, the thing that's true that I've, we realize in the industry is that it's always a part of our education.

Now. We're not taking any assumptions that people know what it is. So we're always educating about the 10 31, why that's important, why stepped, stepped up base is important. Why capital? You know, you don't want to just totally kill the golden goose by taxing it, um, to death. And I think, uh, Lawrence has been terrific in helping, uh, the, the, the realtors be able to, to explain that to, um, members on 

[00:56:06] Dr. Lawrence Yun: the hill.

[00:56:07] Andreas Senie: Yeah. Um, and Nas advocacy on the Hill. Right. I mean, it's, it is fantastic how much they teach us here on the ground locally and all they do for us in Washington. You, thank you for everything you do explaining to the rest of us what's happening in the economy because it's, it's an interesting world where we can be opportunistic and every market is different.

You torture the numbers long enough, they'll tell you what you need to know, depending on how you look at it. Your economi as you get it, whatever ver you know, you have to be selective in what you read, who you talk to, and what you're learning, uh, based on your experiences. So I want to thank you, Dr. Y for coming on the show, talking about the economy and, and really.

Being a, being a great guest and friend Inland Dan for coming on the show and our audience for everything they do and our producer, Mr. Mendoza, as he starts to lead us out here at 6 56 top of the hour cuz we are a timely bunch. Thank you everyone for tuning in for joining us. round tables available everywhere you get your audio.

Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, as well as live the first Thursday of the month at 6:00 PM Don't forget to join us, Dan included next month? Yes, Thursday. Uh, and check out our YouTube station for recorded episodes, live episodes, different content. Dr. Yune, what's the best way for people to reach you and find you?

Uh, I believe they go on any R site if they wanna see what you're doing, what you're up to. Is that right? So, 

[00:57:40] Dr. Lawrence Yun: uh, just Google, uh, into the place N na r Research. So once you do research, the N na R research, uh, there will be many of the research publication myself, my colleagues. Uh, we try to keep, uh, people updated on the latest trends on real estate.

[00:57:56] Andreas Senie: And Dan, if people wanna reach out to you over at Inland, what's the best way to reach you? You know, I, I 

[00:58:02] Dan Wagner: love if you would just gimme a call. I'm at, uh, 6 3 0 4 4 0 7 7 7 oh is my personal cell phone. Um, we have our main inland number, but, uh, I love, uh, one of my favorite things is, uh, our people. So just gimme a 

[00:58:15] Andreas Senie: call.

Oh, building your network cuz it's your net worth. Yes. For the . There you go. There you go. Yeah, that's, Hey, that's a Jonathan Stein saying, he said it to me first. I bless Stein. He runs and runs and, yep. Network is your net worth. Uh. Hats off to everyone. Here we are in 2023. Happy 2023. Thank you for tuning in.

As always, send your questions, give us your feedback. The show continues to grow. Dr. Yon, thank you for all you do. Looking forward to seeing you out there, Dan. 

[00:58:43] Dr. Lawrence Yun: Love you drn. 

[00:58:44] Dan Wagner: Thank you, Andrea. Thank you. 

[00:58:45] Dr. Lawrence Yun: Thank.